Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Consumers. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Consumers. Mostrar todas las entradas

martes, 5 de junio de 2012

The Big Money In 'Instrumenting' Consumers

Last week, Oracle (ORCL) Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison appeared at the All Things D technology conference and—while wooing the audience with his charisma and comedic stylings—talked about “instrumenting” consumers.

While Ellison plays the role of the playboy very well, he’s a geek at heart, and instrumenting is geekese for “monitoring the performance of a computing system as it’s working.” Programmers, for example, have special tools that let them watch the behavior of their code as an application runs to see if anything goes haywire. Hardware engineers have similar tools for monitoring the performance of their computers. The instrumenting holy grail is a tool that lets you spot and fix problems on-the-fly, rather than having to shut everything down.

Ellison’s talk of “instrumenting” consumers came as he explained Oracle’s recent purchase of Vitrue, a six-year-old startup that helps companies manage their brands on social networks. A company can use Vitrue to create a social-marketing campaign, bombard people with tweets, coddle people on Facebook (FB), and then run a data analysis to see if all this socializing made people feel warm and fuzzy enough to buy something. Salesforce.com (CRM), a rival to Oracle in the customer relationship management (CRM) software market, just paid $689 million in cash and stock for Buddy Media, a company whose mission is similar to Vitrue’s.

Twitter has, of course, opened a huge avenue for consumers and companies to engage in a two-way dialogue. People go through an irritating experience with a phone company or airline, tweet about it, and then some company official responds with a soothing message about how sorry they are and how much they want to fix the situation. Indeed, it seems that one of Twitter’s central reasons for being has been to give consumers a new outlet for complaining.

As Ellison pointed out at the conference, companies used to just have databases of what people bought and how much they earned. “Now we can track not only what you’re buying, but what you’re saying,” Ellison said. “We know who your friends are and what you’re saying to your friends. We suddenly have consumers instrumented because they are willing to share their information. Consumers just tell us everything about themselves. Every time you make a comment or tweet—all of this stuff—we have all this detail of people’s lives online, which allows us to market things and sell things and service the consumers in a more insightful way.”

So in Ellison’s world, consumers are basically computing systems that can be instrumented when things go wrong and eventually made to see a company in a more positive light.

Companies certainly want to believe that they can alter someone’s opinion of them through a helpful tweet, or by offering up a coupon on Facebook. Vitrue and Buddy Muddy offer virtual control panels that help companies manage all this work. Buddy Media talks about turning normal tweets into “conversation igniters with messaging power that extends beyond simple text” and scheduling messages “so you can connect with fans when they are most engaged without logging in.” How unromantic. I’d like the person tweaking my subconscious on Facebook to at least be logged in.

So much of the social-media branding push centers on this notion that consumers want to have an ongoing relationship with companies. It all feels very reminiscent of the great Second Life heyday, when IBM (IBM), Coca-Cola (KO), and plenty of others set up shop in the virtual world to create deeper bonds with consumers. The virtual stores were empty, though, and the Second Life ad fad went away.

It’s unclear to me that consumers can really be instrumented in the sense that Ellison means. Companies might like to feel that they’re being proactive and having a dialogue with their customers, but ultimately brands aren’t our buddies. My guess is the behavior of the average consumer is more easily manipulated by a scantily clad model in a TV commercial than an “igniter” in a tweet stream.


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domingo, 13 de mayo de 2012

Lookout Safeguards Smartphones, but Do Consumers Care?

The alert came in around 3 a.m. on May 2. The website of a pest control company was being something of a pest itself, harassing visitors into downloading a suspicious “security update.” Normally, a website spreading malware wouldn’t stir much excitement among computer security professionals. This was different: The virus-laden site targeted only mobile phones, not PCs.

To the founders of smartphone security startup Lookout, this was cause for alarm—and excitement. Hackers have long attacked mobile phones by hiding malware in apps. In this case, smartphones were infected by visiting a website. It signals the economics of hacking are changing, says Kevin Mahaffey, co-founder of Lookout. “Someone is actually forgoing the PC opportunity and choosing mobile instead,” he says.

Any event that raises the specter of cell-phone hacking could be a boon of sorts for the startup, which has built one of the nation’s biggest nets for catching smartphone attacks. Lookout gives away a basic version of its smartphone security app, which offers virus protection and a popular feature for locating a lost phone. It has 20 million users and is adding another million every month. Phones with the app act as beacons that communicate with Lookout’s servers to relay early warnings about mobile threats. The scale is an “enormous competitive advantage” for Lookout, says Mike Volpi, a partner with Index Ventures, which has contributed to the startup’s $76.5 million in funding.

Lookout began as a mobile-security company in Los Angeles nearly a decade ago, when people carried Motorola (MMI) Razrs, not Apple (AAPL) iPhones. Founders Mahaffey, John Hering, and James Burgess, who met as University of Southern California undergrads, had a knack for publicity. At the 2005 Academy Awards, they used an antenna to scan the red carpet and identify celebrities whose phones could be wirelessly hacked. They relocated to San Francisco in 2010 and now have 100 employees.

Lookout’s apps are free, but premium features such as the ability to remotely lock and erase stolen phones cost $2.99 a month. Hering says less than 10 percent of users pay, but that’s “a big number.” Lookout’s threat-detection features are almost entirely automated. Algorithms monitor data about phone usage across its network of apps. When computers spot an anomaly they alert an engineer, who adds the threatening app or website to a blacklist. The software automatically blocks traffic from those sources.

The data the company collects are valuable for more than just threat detection. As Lookout sniffs around for malicious activity, its software accumulates insight into how phones, apps, and networks are being used, which could be useful to cellular operators working to improve their networks, says Volpi, who sits on Lookout’s board. “Device health is extremely important,” he says. “Just like you’d use a monitor to see how your heart is doing, all that health information is superstrategic and you can build a great business out of it.” The startup already has some fans among carriers: T-Mobile (DTE) preinstalls Lookout on most of the Android smartphones it sells, and Verizon Wireless uses Lookout’s technology to monitor its app store for malevolent software.

Still, a lot of current Lookout users don’t worry much about malware. They’re more interested in such features as Lookout’s phone-finding function, used 9 million times in 2011. (Lookout is far more successful with Android owners than iPhone users because Apple offers its own phone-finding service.) Jack Gold, president of J.Gold Associates, a market research firm, says many smartphone users ignore malware threats because there haven’t been many high-profile infections. “It’s like insurance,” he says. “People don’t buy insurance until their house burns down.”

Lookout’s founders light up when talking about security risks such as the pest-control site discovered in early May. The hackers behind the malware, dubbed “NotCompatible,” weren’t interested in stealing data such as passwords. They used victims’ phones to hide the tracks of their scams, which included using stolen credit cards to buy Red Hot Chili Peppers tickets and shop on Apple’s App Store. The Lookout guys warn that the next mobile malware attack could involve something more dangerous than seeing Anthony Kiedis wearing only a tube sock.

The bottom line: Lookout’s network of more than 20 million users helps it detect smartphone risks, but less than 10 percent pay for premium features.


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martes, 17 de mayo de 2011

Hewlett-Packard Cuts Forecasts as Consumers Curb PC Buying

May 17, 2011, 3:11 PM EDT By Aaron Ricadela and Dina Bass

(Updates with an investor’s comment in fourth paragraph.)

May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Hewlett-Packard Co., the biggest personal-computer maker, cut a billion dollars from its sales forecast for the year and missed analysts’ profit projections as consumers shunned PCs and services margins narrowed.

Full-year sales will be $129 billion to $130 billion and earnings excluding some items will be at least $5 a share, Palo Alto, California-based Hewlett-Packard said in a statement today. Analysts estimated sales of $130.3 billion and earnings of $5.24, the average projections in a Bloomberg survey. Third- quarter forecasts from HP also missed analysts’ estimates.

The projections came a day after Bloomberg News reported Chief Executive Officer Leo Apotheker sent a memo warning of “another tough quarter” in the July period. The CEO’s second- straight disappointing forecast reflects rivalry from tablets such as Apple Inc.’s iPad and lower margins in services. Apotheker may be hard pressed to find savings after his predecessor, Mark Hurd, eliminated more than 48,000 jobs.

“The Street was willing to give Apotheker a get-out-of- jail-free card the first time,” said Pat Becker Jr., principal of Portland, Oregon-based Becker Capital Management Inc., which holds Hewlett-Packard as part of its $2.5 billion in assets. “There was a belief on the Street that Hurd had pulled the expense-cutting string about as taut as you could pull it and the next guy had to come in with some vision and strategy.”

‘Watch Every Penny’

Hewlett-Packard dropped $2.95, or 7.4 percent, to $36.85 at 2:12 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, after falling as much as 9.5 percent.

In February, HP predicted full-year sales of $130 billion to $131.5 billion and earnings of at least $5.20 a share.

In his May 4 message, Apotheker urged deputies to “watch every penny and minimize all hiring.” Following news of the missive sent via e-mail, Hewlett-Packard moved up its earnings report to this morning, rather than tomorrow afternoon.

For this quarter, earnings excluding some items will be $1.08 a share, the company said. That missed the $1.23-a-share average projection, the second straight quarter the company’s forecasts fell short. Revenue will be $31.1 billion to $31.3 billion, compared with analysts’ $31.8 billion average estimate.

Purchases of smartphones and tablets are crimping demand for PCs, said Brent Bracelin, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Oregon.

PC Substitution

The industry’s shipments declined 3.2 percent last quarter, research firm IDC reported in April. Tablet sales will almost triple this year, IDC projected in January.

Hewlett-Packard also needs to prove that its technology- services business can tackle companies’ transition to cloud computing, the delivery of applications and data through the Internet, said Bracelin, who rates the stock “sector perform.”

The pressures facing Hewlett-Packard “aren’t going away soon,” he said.

Earnings at the services business fell to $1.36 billion in the quarter that ended April 30 from $1.4 billion a year earlier. Sales increased 1.5 percent to $8.98 billion.

“They need to fix the services business,” said Abhey Lamba, an analyst at International Strategy & Investment Group in New York. “The issue in services, where Apple is not really hurting them, that’s kind of isolated to HP.”

The company plans to hire a new executive to manage its enterprise-services unit, reporting to the CEO, Apotheker said.

Push for Margins

Hewlett-Packard is also speeding efforts to offer customers more profitable technology services. The company has been signing information-technology outsourcing deals that hurt profit margins because the projects are labor-intensive. It needs to bulk up in services that help customers create software applications or outsource customer service, he said.

“We have overinvested operationally and underinvested strategically,” he said. “It is my top focus going forward.”

Sales in the personal systems group fell 5.4 percent to $9.42 billion as revenue from consumer PCs dropped 23 percent.

Second-quarter earnings, excluding some items, were $1.24 a share, while revenue was $31.6 billion. Analysts had estimated $1.21 a share and sales of $31.5 billion.

Net income rose to $2.3 billion, or $1.05 a share, from $2.2 billion, or 91 cents, the year earlier.

Apotheker, who joined as CEO on Nov. 1, gave his initial quarterly report in February, which was marred by a forecast that missed estimates. The shares fell 9.6 percent the next day.

“HP is a large company and for Leo to kind of make changes very quickly is going to be tough,” Lamba said.

Dell Inc., the second-largest U.S. PC maker, also reports its earnings later today, after the close of regular trading.

(The company held a conference call today to discuss results. For a replay, go to {LIVE }.)

--With assistance from Alex Sherman and Erik Schatzker in New York. Editors: Nick Turner, Ville Heiskanen

To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Ricadela in San Francisco at aricadela@bloomberg.net; Dina Bass in Seattle at dbass2@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net


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